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China has deployed its coast guard into the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones past remote Japan's territory as Beijing ramps up tensions over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its vessels carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Tokyo but also claimed by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the latest activity occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it describes as “unification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and people categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An attack or invasion by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the US and other partner nations including Japan, which has land just 68 miles from the island.

Defense Operations

In Taiwan, the military authorities said on Sunday morning that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was likely the maritime patrol, active near the island over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs flying between Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, appearing to go unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said Beijing had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. The island reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from China since Takaichi made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Japan by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other powers, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.